How to use Kalshi vs Polymarket Arb Scanner
Daily-refreshed scan of arbitrage candidates across Kalshi and Polymarket. Paired contract matching, tax + resolution-risk overlay, no signup. Edge data, not advice.
What It Does
Use the calculator with intent
Daily-refreshed scan of arbitrage candidates across Kalshi and Polymarket. Paired contract matching, tax + resolution-risk overlay, no signup. Edge data, not advice.
Active prediction-market traders who already understand the resolution-rule and tax differences between the two venues and need a candidate-set to scan, not a tutorial.
Interpreting Results
Sort by tax-adjusted edge first — gross edge is misleading once IRS Section 1256 vs ordinary-income treatment is applied. Watch resolution-risk: high-risk pairs need a wider edge to compensate.
Input Steps
Field by field
- 1
The
The tool polls both platforms and lists current cross-venue spreads on equivalent-event pairs.
- 2
Read outputs
Read the gross spread and net spread (after fees, gas, capital costs). Net spreads under 1% are usually not worth the operational complexity.
- 3
Verify
Verify event equivalence on the methodology page — subtle differences in resolution criteria can void apparent arbs.
- 4
Check assumptions
Check the depth of book on both venues. Apparent arbs with thin depth disappear at meaningful size.
- 5
Read outputs
Read disclaimers. The tool surfaces opportunities; it does not recommend execution. Real arb requires capital on both sides and operational tolerance for settlement delays.
Common Scenarios
Use realistic starting points
Election event with tight spreads
Event type
election
Min gross edge
1.5%
Most candidates have <1% gross edge after fees; the surviving rows are where size matters more than rate.
Macro event with wider spreads
Event type
macro
Min gross edge
3%
Resolution risk often dominates; check the per-venue rule text before sizing.
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FAQ
Questions people ask next
The short answers readers usually want after the first pass.
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