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Deflated Sharpe Ratio Calculator

Bailey & López de Prado deflated Sharpe — corrects observed Sharpe for multiple-testing across K trials. Returns deflated SR, PSR, and confidence interval.

Inputs
Form inputs / CSV
Runtime
Instant
Privacy
Client-side · no upload
API key
Not required
Methodology
Open →

Education · Not investment advice. BaFin/EU framework. Past performance does not indicate future results. Editorial standards Sponsor disclosure Corrections

Inputs

Observed Sharpe (annualized)2.00
Observations (n)252
Number of trials (K)100
Skewness γ₃-0.40
Kurtosis γ₄ (3 = normal)4.50
Periods / year252

Notes

K trials = how many strategies you tried before picking this one. 100 is typical for grid search. Higher K demands a higher observed Sharpe to clear the multiple-testing haircut.

Deflated Sharpe

-0.54

Observed 2.00 minus expected-maximum-under-null 2.54. Positive after K trials means the edge survives multiple-testing.

Decision metrics

PSR (skill prob)

30.2%

P(true SR > deflated benchmark)

z-statistic

-0.52

non-normal corrected

Effective benchmark

2.54

Sharpe to beat

Reading the result

PSR > 95%: the edge clears the multiple-testing haircut — the strategy is statistically distinguishable from a lucky pick from K trials. 80–95%: marginal. Consider longer history or fewer trials. <80%: the apparent edge is consistent with noise after K-trial selection bias. See methodology.

How to use

Step-by-step

Full calculator guide →
  1. 1

    Enter your strategy's raw Sharpe ratio, sample size (number of return observations), skewness, and kurtosis γ₄ (3 for normal returns — this is raw kurtosis, not excess kurtosis).

  2. 2

    Enter the total number of strategy variants tested — including the ones you discarded. This is critical: under-reporting trials inflates DSR.

  3. 3

    Read DSR alongside raw Sharpe. The gap shows how much the multiple-testing penalty discounts your raw number.

  4. 4

    Read PSR (probability of skill) for the confidence call: ≥ 0.95 is the standard bar. A positive deflated Sharpe means your Sharpe survives the selection penalty — the larger the gap over zero, the more edge remains. The deflated value is a Sharpe difference, not a z-score, so don't map its magnitude to a fixed confidence.

  5. 5

    If DSR is negative, the deflation correction overwhelms the raw Sharpe — test a longer sample, fewer variants, or a different signal.

For agents

Use in an agent

Same math, same result shape as the UI above — as a static ES module. No HTTP request, no auth, no rate limit.

import { compute } from "https://aifinhub.io/engines/deflated-sharpe-ratio.js";

Contract: /contracts/deflated-sharpe-ratio.json Full agent guide →

Glossary references

Terms used by this tool

All glossary →

Questions people ask next

FAQ

What does 'deflated' mean here?

Standard Sharpe ratio assumes returns are i.i.d. Gaussian, which they aren't. Lopez de Prado's deflated Sharpe (2014) corrects for skew, kurtosis, and the multiple-testing penalty when you ran N strategy variants. The deflated value is what would be left after the curve-fitting comes out in the wash.

How many trials should I report?

All of them. The deflation factor depends on the total number of strategy variants tested, including the ones you discarded. Under-reporting trials shrinks the deflation and inflates the apparent Sharpe — that's exactly the bias the metric was designed to catch.

What's a meaningful deflated Sharpe threshold?

The deflated Sharpe the tool shows is your annualized Sharpe minus the expected maximum Sharpe from N trials — a Sharpe difference, not a z-score, so don't map fixed magnitudes to fixed confidences (that mapping depends on sample size). A positive value means your Sharpe beats what pure selection would produce. For the confidence read, use PSR (probability of skill), which the tool also reports: PSR ≥ 0.95 is the common publication bar.

Can DSR be negative?

Yes. A negative DSR means the deflation correction is so large that the strategy's Sharpe is statistically indistinguishable from zero, or worse, from a draw of pure random noise. Negative DSR is common when the trial count is high (50+) and the raw Sharpe is modest.

Should I trust DSR if my sample is short?

Be cautious below 100 observations. The deflation formula incorporates higher moments (skew, kurtosis), which need decent sample size to estimate well. This calculator takes skew and kurtosis as inputs you set — it does not estimate them from a trade log, so estimate them on at least 100 observations before trusting DSR, or use the Backtest Overfitting Score, which computes moments from an uploaded returns CSV.

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