{
  "calculator": "calibration-dojo",
  "title": "Calibration Dojo",
  "site": "AI Fin Hub",
  "input": {},
  "defaults_used": {},
  "result": {
    "questions": [
      {
        "id": "q1",
        "statement": "The speed of light in vacuum is greater than 300,000 km/s.",
        "truth": false,
        "category": "physics",
        "source": "CODATA 2018 fundamental physical constants",
        "rationale": "The exact value is 299,792,458 m/s = 299,792.458 km/s, which is less than 300,000 km/s."
      },
      {
        "id": "q2",
        "statement": "The Eiffel Tower is taller than 300 meters including antennas.",
        "truth": true,
        "category": "geography",
        "source": "Société d'Exploitation de la Tour Eiffel",
        "rationale": "Height to tip including antennas is ~330 m."
      },
      {
        "id": "q3",
        "statement": "Over the last 50 years (to 2024), the US stock market has had more positive calendar years than negative calendar years.",
        "truth": true,
        "category": "finance-generic",
        "source": "S&P / Damodaran annual returns series",
        "rationale": "Roughly 73–76% of calendar years are positive over long rolling windows; far more ups than downs."
      },
      {
        "id": "q4",
        "statement": "The Great Wall of China is visible to the naked eye from low Earth orbit.",
        "truth": false,
        "category": "physics",
        "source": "NASA — multiple astronaut reports",
        "rationale": "It is generally not visible from LEO without aids; this is a common misconception debunked by NASA and astronauts including Chiao."
      },
      {
        "id": "q5",
        "statement": "A year on Venus is shorter than one rotation of Venus (its sidereal day).",
        "truth": true,
        "category": "physics",
        "source": "NASA planetary fact sheet",
        "rationale": "Venusian orbital period is ~224.7 Earth days; a sidereal day on Venus is ~243 Earth days."
      },
      {
        "id": "q6",
        "statement": "Japan has more islands than Greece.",
        "truth": true,
        "category": "geography",
        "source": "Geospatial Information Authority of Japan 2023 recount",
        "rationale": "Japan's recount placed islands at ~14,125; Greece has ~1,400–6,000 depending on definition."
      },
      {
        "id": "q7",
        "statement": "The global median household income is above USD 15,000.",
        "truth": false,
        "category": "economics",
        "source": "Gallup / World Bank household income surveys",
        "rationale": "Global median is closer to $3,000–9,000 USD depending on methodology; nowhere near $15K."
      },
      {
        "id": "q8",
        "statement": "The first transatlantic submarine telegraph cable was laid before the American Civil War ended.",
        "truth": true,
        "category": "history",
        "source": "Smithsonian Institution archives",
        "rationale": "The first working transatlantic cable began service in August 1858; the Civil War ended April 1865."
      },
      {
        "id": "q9",
        "statement": "The Dead Sea is below sea level.",
        "truth": true,
        "category": "geography",
        "source": "Geological Survey of Israel",
        "rationale": "Approximately 430 meters below sea level — lowest land elevation on Earth."
      },
      {
        "id": "q10",
        "statement": "A bond with a higher yield-to-maturity always has a higher current price than a lower-yield bond of the same maturity and coupon.",
        "truth": false,
        "category": "finance-generic",
        "source": "Standard fixed-income textbook (e.g. Fabozzi)",
        "rationale": "Higher YTM corresponds to LOWER price (inverse relationship) for the same cash flows."
      },
      {
        "id": "q11",
        "statement": "Pluto is smaller than Mercury.",
        "truth": true,
        "category": "physics",
        "source": "NASA planetary fact sheet",
        "rationale": "Pluto diameter ~2,377 km; Mercury diameter ~4,880 km."
      },
      {
        "id": "q12",
        "statement": "The EU adopted the euro as a physical currency before the year 2000.",
        "truth": false,
        "category": "history",
        "source": "European Central Bank historical timeline",
        "rationale": "Euro banknotes and coins entered circulation on 1 January 2002. The euro existed as an accounting currency from 1 January 1999."
      },
      {
        "id": "q13",
        "statement": "Norway's sovereign wealth fund (the GPFG) first passed USD 1 trillion in market value in 2017.",
        "truth": true,
        "category": "finance-generic",
        "source": "Norges Bank Investment Management",
        "rationale": "The Government Pension Fund Global passed USD 1 trillion in September 2017 and has stayed above it since."
      },
      {
        "id": "q14",
        "statement": "Kelly criterion bet sizing is defined as f* = (bp − q) / b where b = odds, p = win probability, q = 1 − p.",
        "truth": true,
        "category": "finance-generic",
        "source": "Kelly 1956, 'A New Interpretation of Information Rate'",
        "rationale": "This is the original formula from Kelly's 1956 paper."
      },
      {
        "id": "q15",
        "statement": "MCP (Model Context Protocol) was first specified by OpenAI.",
        "truth": false,
        "category": "tech",
        "source": "Anthropic MCP specification repository",
        "rationale": "MCP was specified and open-sourced by Anthropic in November 2024."
      },
      {
        "id": "q16",
        "statement": "Over the last 100 years, large-cap US equities have had a positive real return in more than 60% of rolling 10-year windows.",
        "truth": true,
        "category": "finance-generic",
        "source": "Damodaran annualised returns series, 1928–present",
        "rationale": "Positive real-return share is closer to ~85%+ for rolling 10-year windows; the statement is comfortably true."
      },
      {
        "id": "q17",
        "statement": "At a 52% win rate and 1:1 odds, full Kelly recommends a 4% bet of bankroll per trade.",
        "truth": true,
        "category": "finance-generic",
        "source": "Direct Kelly formula: f* = (1 × 0.52 − 0.48) / 1 = 0.04",
        "rationale": "Substituting into Kelly's formula gives exactly 0.04 = 4%."
      },
      {
        "id": "q18",
        "statement": "The Antarctic Treaty, establishing Antarctica as a scientific preserve, entered force before 1970.",
        "truth": true,
        "category": "history",
        "source": "Secretariat of the Antarctic Treaty",
        "rationale": "Signed 1959, entered into force 23 June 1961."
      },
      {
        "id": "q19",
        "statement": "A Sharpe ratio of 2.0 on daily returns annualizes to roughly 31.7.",
        "truth": true,
        "category": "finance-generic",
        "source": "Standard Sharpe annualization: SR_annual ≈ SR_daily × √252 ≈ 31.75",
        "rationale": "2.0 × √252 ≈ 31.75."
      },
      {
        "id": "q20",
        "statement": "The Shannon entropy of a fair coin is 1 bit.",
        "truth": true,
        "category": "physics",
        "source": "Shannon 1948, 'A Mathematical Theory of Communication'",
        "rationale": "H(p=0.5, q=0.5) = −(0.5·log₂(0.5) + 0.5·log₂(0.5)) = 1 bit."
      },
      {
        "id": "q21",
        "statement": "The Deflated Sharpe Ratio was introduced by Bailey and Lopez de Prado in 2014.",
        "truth": true,
        "category": "finance-generic",
        "source": "Bailey, D. H., & Lopez de Prado, M. (2014). Journal of Portfolio Management 40(5).",
        "rationale": "DSR extends Sharpe with a multiple-testing + non-normality correction; original 2014 paper."
      },
      {
        "id": "q22",
        "statement": "Most benchmarks of mainstream LLMs on numeric extraction from 10-K filings report accuracy above 99%.",
        "truth": false,
        "category": "tech",
        "source": "Finance-LLM benchmark literature 2023–2025",
        "rationale": "Published extraction accuracy on numeric fields from full 10-Ks typically falls in the 80–95% range depending on task and model; 99%+ is not a realistic report."
      },
      {
        "id": "q23",
        "statement": "Options pricing via Black-Scholes assumes the underlying follows a geometric Brownian motion.",
        "truth": true,
        "category": "finance-generic",
        "source": "Black & Scholes 1973, Journal of Political Economy",
        "rationale": "Geometric Brownian motion (log-normal underlying, constant drift + volatility) is the canonical Black-Scholes assumption."
      },
      {
        "id": "q24",
        "statement": "Cointegration between two price series is the same as high Pearson correlation between them.",
        "truth": false,
        "category": "finance-generic",
        "source": "Engle & Granger 1987, Econometrica 55(2)",
        "rationale": "Cointegration is about a stationary linear combination of non-stationary series; two series can be highly correlated without being cointegrated, and vice versa."
      }
    ]
  },
  "provenance": {
    "run": "https://aifinhub.io/api/run/calibration-dojo",
    "page": "https://aifinhub.io/calibration-dojo/",
    "methodology": "https://aifinhub.io/methodology/calibration-dojo/",
    "contract": "https://aifinhub.io/contracts/calibration-dojo.json",
    "engine": "https://aifinhub.io/engines/calibration-dojo.js",
    "engine_sha256": "b1638c7d29d84c04a06c7437489d0794958cd36b75035dfe93237780ac0c509a",
    "build": "9e8a56a16bda662ba90601b49561a2b176e9c379"
  },
  "disclaimer": "Planning estimates only — not financial, tax, or investment advice.",
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "cite": "AI Fin Hub, Calibration Dojo (engine b1638c7d29d8), https://aifinhub.io/api/run/calibration-dojo"
}